NRL Round 24 2025

My Game Handicaps | Market

-3.5 | -5.5 Panthers v Storm | 40.5

-4.5 | -5.5 Warriors v Dragons | 43.5

+2.5 | +2.5 Roosters v Bulldogs | 41.5

-12.5 | -9.5 Sharks v Titans | 50.5

-4.5 | -3.5 Broncos v Dolphins | 48.5

+2.5 | +3.5 Rabbits v Eels | 47.5

+1.5 | +3.5 Tigers v Eagles | 47.5

-11.5 | -9.5 Cowboys v Knights | 48.5

Plays

3u Storm +1.5 $1.90 BB

2u Sharks -9.5 $1.90

3.5u Cowboys -9.5 $1.90

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Staking

Likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and this also reflects confidence).

My Line Picks

+5.5 Storm

+5.5 Dragons

-2.5 Bulldogs

-9.5 Titans

-3.5 Broncos

-3.5 Eels

+3.5 Tigers

-9.5 Cowboys

Game Tips

Storm by 2

Warriors by 4

Bulldogs by 2

Sharks by 14

Broncos by 6

Eels by 4

Tigers by 6

Cowboys by 14

Individual Game Opinion

 -3.5 | -5.5 Panthers v Storm 40.5

Cracking game match up. Panthers have won last 9 but some questionable depth, last 5 wins v bottom 4 teams, but no doubt their quality and they will be up for this, Yeo still a key out. Quality side but I am yet to be convinced they are any where near the same level of recent seasons, and the Knights were plain embarrassing last week yet many getting carried away with the win result. Not playing at Penrith Park another disadvantage. Storm have won 9 of last 10 and I think greater depth in who and how they come through that form line, but remain with 3 to 4 very important outs. But, their record as an underdog is outstanding, covered the last 4 and won 3 of them outright including going to Penrith last year as +5.5 and winning. Think they market is too wide, Storm up against it but still want to be with them. Storm win and line. 

Tri bet either team 1 to 8 looks the right play.

-4.5 | -5.5 Warriors v Dragons 43.5

Warriors with the shakes and 3 straight defeats desperately need to balance up here, at home helps, Egan a big in. Off possibly their weakest offering this season last week, defensively now hard to trust against the top of table teams. Dragons off wins over Sharks and Raiders will be buoyed with some confidence, but they just hate travelling with a shocking away record that then gets worst on long distance legs. Small lean to Wahs with Egan and Boyd playing, byt Dragons with the plus looks the line play. Warriors just, Dragons line. 

 +2.5 | +2.5 Roosters v Bulldogs 41.5

Another cracking clash and nice test for both. The Roosters have the obvious issue of losing 14 last 15 vs top 4 opponents, but also some question remains on Bulldogs aiming up against top shelf opposition. Roosters have been close to winning some quality games but let down by self error, but their best is clearly good and their back 5 have outstanding strike. Bulldogs off positive win last week (Wahs) and two weeks ago demolished Eagles at this ground, have won 4 last 6 away and 3 last 5 head to head, and their strength has been the defensive offering coupled with a lot of general play discipline. Think that likely gets the (Bulldogs) the win here. Bulldogs win and line.

-12.5 | -9.5 Sharks v Titans 50.5

Sharks horrible last week and again another away shite offering, 14 for and 22 against flattered them and how poor they were. They are a different offering at Shark Park, won 8 of last 10 here and many by decent margins and this does look a drop back in grade vs the base of table opponent who leak way too many and at times with ease. Titans have been better, but can still find a way to lose, they just hate away games and are another who just hate distant travel, their record in Sydney games is disgraceful. Also have some injury issues, and questions on some key ins or outs this week. Look due for a bad one again, Sydney venue and an opponent that do have some attack strike doesn’t help. Sharks win and line.

-4.5 | -3.5 Broncos v Dolphins 48.5

Broncos 3 key outs and have lost last 6 when with out Reynolds.. but meet an opponent who look in big trouble holding on to their season. Hunt and Walters at 7 and 6 should get the job done, all they need is to balance up and win. Dolphins just crumbled last week after all the tough stuff, all these injury outs look to be catching up to them, but teams off such a big flogging do seem to have a knack of responding the following week, Suncorp helps, match up v big brother also helps, but very much on trust, their defensive offering and handling errors last week dug a massive hole. Broncos win and line.

+2.5 | +3.5 Rabbits v Eels 47.5 

Base of table match up, close watch on late player ins and outs for both sides (Cody Walker, Isaiah Iongi). Very tricky, Latrell the difference in winning last week but still a grind and a very ugly win. Eels a late golden point home win, their best offerings have been at home and have lost 7 last 9 on the road, but are playing some positive footy and certainly still having a crack. Small lean to Eels to win and line.

+1.5 | +3.5 Tigers v Eagles 47.5 

Which Tigers turn up? Prior to the last start, there had been some very ordinary offerings, yet the Galvin Cup motivation seemed to lift them significantly, and they offered one of their best performances of the season to date. Now off a bye, but (yuk) have lost their last 9 off a bye.. Eagles look more focused on mad Monday than anything else, lost last 3 and leaking way too many points, looks next to no care factor. Have won 7 of last 8 head to head, but are also another who travel poorly and got demolished at this ground by the Bulldogs only a few weeks ago, who the following week the Tigers beat.. If, and its an unknown if the Tigers have a crack can win and like the plus line.

-11.5 | -9.5 Cowboys v Knights 48.5 

Cowboys off back to back away Sydney legs and defeats, back at home, but importantly, do get Mclean back and will get further benefit off Taumalolo getting some game fitness last week. 9th mystery of the world how this side with 4 Origin reps and one near so (Drinkwater) have performed so poorly this season. Close to a win last week, this looks a further drop in grade and they play at home, their ball shift attack might be all that’s required. Knights couldn’t have made it any more obvious last week that they couldn’t give a flying fk any more, absolutely listless, leaked 48, leaked 44 the game prior and must spin the chocolate wheel each week to decide who’s turn it is to play in the halves. Cowboys still look a bit interested, and at home, like them to win and line.

Handicapping a game and my approach

First and foremost I work off what I see. I watch every game, some multiple times and keep various notes, having coached for 16 yrs I look at a game a little more differently than most and am looking at how the play and patterns unfold, strengths and weakness.

I then also work to a set of rating numbers which are influenced off what I am seeing and then various parameters. I rate every team out of 100 to start the season and re rate these numbers every Monday based on current form, win loss and performance to both my numbers and the markets.

Then for each individual game I work through what looks the potential match up. Team A number, plus or minus key team changes, plus any home ground advantage vs Team B number, plus or minus key team changes, then factor in away and or travel record and if there has been a decided advantage one way or the other in the match up. I than arrive at a number between the two teams.

The market setters are doing the same when they put their positions up, in the background they have a few key analysts doing a similar number approach to then set what they think looks and approximate gap between the two teams with a lean to creating a likely market position that might attract punters on both sides.

Home Ground. As a guide these days I work off an approx number of 2.0 pts for home ground, as long as it is a true home ground advantage. 3 or more yrs ago this was higher but with full time professional teams the gap has closed. Some teams then tho will have a higher home advantage and or more advantage if playing teams doing distant travel – it is never a single position fits all.

Handicapping a game and my approach

First and foremost I work off what I see. I watch every game, some multiple times and keep various notes, having coached for 16 yrs I look at a game a little more differently than most and am looking at how the play and patterns unfold, strengths and weakness.

I then also work to a set of rating numbers which are influenced off what I am seeing and then various parameters. I rate every team out of 100 to start the season and re rate these numbers every Monday based on current form, win loss and performance to both my numbers and the markets.

Then for each individual game I work through what looks the potential match up. Team A number, plus or minus key team changes, plus any home ground advantage vs Team B number, plus or minus key team changes, then factor in away and or travel record and if there has been a decided advantage one way or the other in the match up. I than arrive at a number between the two teams.

The market setters are doing the same when they put their positions up, in the background they have a few key analysts doing a similar number approach to then set what they think looks and approximate gap between the two teams with a lean to creating a likely market position that might attract punters on both sides.

Home Ground. As a guide these days I work off an approx number of 2.0 pts for home ground, as long as it is a true home ground advantage. 3 or more yrs ago this was higher but with full time professional teams the gap has closed. Some teams then tho will have a higher home advantage and or more advantage if playing teams doing distant travel – it is never a single position fits all.

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